Hefeng Animal Husbandry (603609): The meat and poultry sector has driven the performance up

Hefeng Animal Husbandry (603609): The meat and poultry sector has driven the performance up
2018 / 1Q19 return to mother net profit +17.18% / + 53.65%, better-than-expected performance Hefeng Animal Husbandry announced 2018 and 1Q19 results: 2018 revenue / net profit attributable to mother +15 per year.00% / + 17.18% to 157.51/5.52 ppm, 19Q1 revenue / attributable net profit +12 for two years.23% / + 53.65% to 35.12/1.410,000 yuan, the 2018 performance is consistent with the forecast, but the 1Q19 performance exceeded expectations, the rebound in the performance of the meat and poultry sector is the top priority of the performance, 四川耍耍网 the company’s 1Q19 investment income increased +137.80% to 0.88 million, mainly from meat and poultry slaughtering business. Development trend The high poultry prices are good for the performance of the company’s meat and poultry sector. From 3Q18 to the present, poultry prices are at a relatively high level. The meat and poultry breeding and slaughtering business that the company controls and shares have benefited, and the investment income of 2018 / 1Q19 has increased by +67.15% / + 137.80%, and drive overall performance growth.Looking forward, we expect the bird price to improve this year, and the single feather net profit has an upward momentum.At the same time, the total broiler breeding volume of the company’s holding and participating companies in 2018 was +12.73% to 3.100 million birds, the number of broilers slaughtered +18.70% to 4.At 5.5 billion birds, the company expects broiler breeding and slaughter volume to reach 3 in 2019.9, 5.0 billion birds.On the whole, the rise in volume and price of the meat and poultry sector will be the main driving force for this year’s performance growth. It is expected that feed sales this year will be differentiated: the company’s pig feed / poultry feed sales will decline by -8 in 2018.8% / + 15.0% to 84.4/93.4 samples, we judge that this year’s pig feed, poultry feed sales are still differentiated.At present, the domestic pig production capacity has exceeded the previous round, which has made it difficult for pig feed sales to face an external environment; and the price of poultry has been at a historically high level, which will still drive the growth of poultry feed.Taking both factors into consideration, we believe that the overall sales volume of feed in 2019 will increase, but the proportion of poultry feed with a low gross profit margin will increase, which will cause the overall feed gross profit margin to decrease slightly. There is uncertainty in the pig breeding business: The Air Force Company raised funds to invest in breeding pig farm projects through non-targeted additional issuance, and the company expects that this year Liaoning and Jilin pig breeding projects will be put into production.However, due to the severe swine fever epidemic in Northeast China and the breakthrough in epidemic prevention, there is uncertainty in the company’s development of pig breeding business, and we expect to make limited contribution to performance. Earnings forecast takes into account the profitability of the poultry slaughtering business, and we raise our net profit return to mothers for 2019/202020.4% / 16.5% to 7.32/7.6 billion. Estimates and recommendations correspond to 18/17 times the estimates for 2019/2020.Maintain the recommendation, while considering the upward revision of profit forecast and overall estimate repair, raise the target price by 82% to 18.2 yuan, corresponding to 23/22 times the 2019/2020 estimate, + 30% space. The price of risky raw materials fluctuates, the breeding boom is sluggish, and the animal epidemic situation actually controls human risks.