A false alarm: the knot could be so real estate solution

REVIEW: This is the "buy stocks or buy a house," a text of buy real version, is thinking of wealth in life may change, the article is a bit long, do not understand can ask questions, but it is recommended not to talk nonsense to mislead, or else you're likely to draw their own future mouth。 Now a second-tier cities housing prices up speed and absolute terms have people getting scared。 Think disgruntled buyers, there are family room at a loss, care for people with lofty ideals, authorities know what to do, this knot seems real estate is no longer the solution, there is into the cliff, no refund Abyss。 According to the views of some experts, the price trend has been such a runaway horse, but can not find now is to rein reins, only fate。 But I think the conclusion is: the future will eventually find that this is a false alarm。 I understand that you want in shock, angry people to accept my point of view this is not possible, because many people simply quiet on the logic of this long reading。 In order to let more people understand today, say, six months ago, the day before yesterday I put an article in "buy stocks or buy" unlocked, and now to see the most value in this article is accurate definition of a share of fluctuating trend, given the crash before buying, rose to be thrown H333 Raiders, with additional logic to people who want to buy a house emboldened。 The article some people that can not read, in order to allow these people to read this article today, I do some explanation: 1, my articles because it is a logical unity, the same strain, powder Hong family has been watching my article, which also some people see are not serious (not certified point of view before the market they often turn a blind eye, that can not read), in order to allow them to present a serious look at the article, I used to judge the history verified talk again, some people thought I was to prove himself correct it so that it feels uncomfortable。
In fact, no need, I have always said, I am not superstitious to believe in logic。 2, "to buy stocks or buy a house," a paper I put my reality buy node published, also lists the stock market in a number of success stories, in fact, just to show that I text says the pattern of logical thinking is correct, it is to allow interested people pay attention to my long-winded text pattern of thinking。
Today, let us continue to try real estate for Solution of this "knot" with the investment logic。 "Buy stocks or buy a house," mentioned in the article: summary of his past investments in real estate and stock markets, all success stems from "pattern", thanks to care for their own thinking as a starting point。 Similarly, today began thinking from concern for the fate。 Prices rose two major disadvantages: 1, people complaining, increasing social instability; 2, plummeted after soaring easily lead to financial crisis, economic crisis。
Benefits prices rose: 1, to resolve the current economic difficulties, to gain time for economic transformation; 2, the absorption super-currency to gain time for the financial reform。 Benefits can meet their immediate needs (such as Noah's Ark), the downside is that will greatly increase the risk of future (may be the Titanic hit an iceberg)。
By thinking grasp the principal contradiction, all of this initiative is clearly in the hands of the government。 That is all decided by the government intentions and practices。 For the government stability overrides everything, affect the stability of things is a major event, to talk about the following three points only from the economic level is stabilizing influence major events: 1, the economy continues to decline; 2, the financial crisis, the economic crisis; 3, an apparent reversal of public life。
The aforementioned housing prices may continue to ease the economic downturn, the government is able to resolve the pain of the first big heart。 So, we only need to think back two issues。 Thinking about these two issues speaking in the "buy stocks or buy a house," a text of some refinement here again to talk about which conclusions: What is China's biggest feature is?Are many people (more than smart people, stupid, no less), so the TOC of the most promising business, so the Internet there is a market, it is difficult to unity, so stability is very important, so follow the mass line, so do not ever put Organization when the opponent, so the home is the Chinese people's most trusted harbor。
Therefore, the most rational thinking is standing government point of view and must not stop to think about the opposite problem of organization。 Therefore, to understand the family is the Chinese people's most trusted harbor, there is room only home feeling。 And understanding the reality of the current real estate market is clearly there is a huge bias, our housing market and the Japanese market is not quite comparable, our first-tier cities in real estate for many years in tightly regulated, but the result was beyond the big most people imagine that behind the "there is room only home 'logic, there are' pyramid structure" the most stable logic。 Obviously, those studies analyzed their sights on how much would be reasonable housing prices are meaningless。 This is neither in line with the "home priceless," the logic, more stable decision-makers do not meet the makers of overriding logical thinking。 The first is the pursuit of stable policy makers no great risk, and skyrocketing housing prices is likely to bring only bring great risk risky and not necessarily, if not a slump after skyrocketing housing prices, or there is a good coping strategies when the slump, there are effective means to prevent systemic risk, and that housing prices is acceptable。 As long as there is the ability to fast rising housing prices continued to fiction on it。
On the price Gaobu Gao, the future will not crash, there is a lot of people agree with the logic: the inevitable inflation, devaluation is inevitable, when a packet of instant noodles to buy a 100 yuan to 1,000 yuan, you would think that now prices are not high。 This logic seems reasonable, but always gives the feeling of lack of reason。 To solve housing prices after the government mind the risk of uncontrollable fear, a clear need more convincing logic。
If there is a logic indicates that the current trend of rising housing prices in line with stable structure on the physical, in line with the principles of economics, but also in line with the law of development of ecological and social sustainable development, and that this logic is not what we are looking for real logic behind。 Well, today the focus of talk about this logic, analysis found that China's real estate market most in need of reform is the supply side, because there are people in the room have a view of family, buy a house is just a huge demand, because people seek luxury attitude, indicating the identity of the house pricing is unreasonable, because the only real estate investment is a no failures of investment, lack of investment goods in the present period, real estate investment has become almost the only public investment choices……Consider these points based on regulatory control requirements are very difficult to succeed, the only way to increase the supply can be achieved only purpose of the regulation, the following stand it said the government point of view with digital untie the knot of real estate policy logic。 To visually illustrate the problem, I figure is a simplified, that we should not tangle specific figures are accurate。 (Special Note: This is telling the average price, the average price should be the concern of the government, public concern) is currently China's urban average price (unit: 30,000 / m) is the general structure, first-tier cities: second-line: third line: Four line: five lines = 4: 3: 2: 1 :; tier cities average price structure, the inner ring: the ring: outer: suburban ring: outer ring = 10: 6: 4: 2: 1。
First-tier cities face are global, including the entire population of China and overseas, so the number of first-tier inner city housing prices by domestic and overseas have the ability to pay of the will of the decision。
If one of the best long-term urban area is mainly occupied by indigenous people, it only shows that the city did not develop unattractive, or that the city is very unreasonable distribution of wealth。
A resident in order to live in a house in the city the best it must be through their own efforts to deal with the competition of outstanding people from around the world, count on the protection of local policies is unreasonable is impossible。
The world is advancing in economic development, urban progress, which is almost considered a natural law, first-tier cities of Aboriginal used to live in the inner ring, now living in the ring, but does not reduce the quality of life, not only a large housing area love good quality a lot of time to work on the road is not much time-consuming than the original。 Similarly, it is conceivable as urban development, the future will be a lot of people from Central moved to the outer ring, because the city will continue to grow。 In fact, this is the most stable of the pyramid structure, and is developing gradually move up the pyramid, are benign, every one of us to find his place in the pyramid through their own efforts, can not compete in the first-tier cities pyramid people can go down a grid, but this will not affect their quality of life, can also consider the pyramid to second-tier cities, second-tier pyramid of people of the city can also go through the efforts of first-tier cities and pyramid compete。
This is in fact the progress of society, it is a virtuous circle。 The good news is that with advances in technology, improve urban management capacity of human beings, first-tier cities can become larger, urban land area is available for larger geometric growth, the growth of new land can provide our residents with a large number of low price of the house, pressed the city average rise in house prices, the key to these areas because of the subway car and other travel very convenient, and will not affect the life and work of residents。 From this perspective, prices will drop it?We need to crash?Since the new house, mainly in the outer ring and outside, that is, to increase the supply of land outside the outer ring and to speed up the construction of the subway, so the city's average rise in property prices will not be great, if well managed, entirely possible in 2020 Rates over the structure as follows: average rate becomes National city, line: second line: three-wire: four-wire: five lines = 5: 1 :: 4:; ADR structure becomes tier cities, inner: Central: outer: suburban ring : an outer ring = 15: 10: 5: 2: 1。
In 2020, this rate structure we can accept it?The result is that stock prices do not fall, but also to meet the public demand for houses, the Government can resolve many problems by increasing the amount of land sales, it is perfect, is not it?The desire to achieve it?Can, but need to address the following three levels: 1, so that the government and the public to acknowledge the legitimacy of the social development of human resources allocation, ecological pyramid structure of distribution; 2, government and public awareness to the big city of human development and social progress inevitably, the most efficient social services, advances in technology greatly improves the human ability to manage large cities (such as Shanghai with Shanghai management capabilities can accommodate 5,000 people); 3, the government and people understand that high-quality resources (status symbol) will eventually become a luxury, not a necessity but a number of luxury goods, cars and other consumer goods that people can accept that there is a luxury, but people are not accepting the property also has a luxury that line the city's mansion is actually the first-line luxury brands of luxury cars, its pricing and our people had nothing to do, people can buy these luxury cars (house) simply do not care about the price, it does not affect the pricing of our people buy Santana pricing。
To treat people the luxury of attitude may explain why some places tier cities real estate prices seem ridiculously high, the same piece of clothing, a bag if speaking from a practical function almost the same, but the price can vary ten times, no one would blame it is unreasonable。 With this thinking view room rates, it seems to pass。
Therefore, we recommend that the government and people do not take up lots of attention to the prices of some houses has become a luxury, it only cost like a luxury tax (increase cost-hyun rich)。
The non-luxury room just to be sure to try fiction price, by increasing the supply of suburban land, good transport facilities on the basic of life can be achieved。
In the past the government has to increase residential land supply concerns, mainly because of falling house prices, but also afraid of the city becomes too large, the above logic should tell the government has resolved these two concerns。
Government does not have a concern, as long as the use of a strong campaign to solve the problem of public awareness can put this knot to the solution of real estate。
Shown in Figure 1, in a luxury house prices, the average price rising slowly premise, increase the supply fee of luxury houses, to meet the needs of the people of the house, to enhance the quality of life; 2, to close the luxury tax, balance the people mentality; 3, as long as a large number of new listings of suburban real estate prices stable, even if the overall stability of the real estate, the new downtown real estate is small, old house there is no luxury high leverage, stir appear if the luxury house the risk is local, but also easy to control。
If the above logic holds, then how do we do it?Buy or sell?1, first of all, this logic though I sort of wishful thinking, but I believe that logic through, the government will eventually adopt this method, no way afraid of a lot of problems, as long as there will always be found in road。 But the process of trial and error are inevitable, such as the Government will introduce a number of real estate control measures, but these measures are regulated as long as the result is to give people who want to purchase a larger panic manufacturing, each one sees always see regulation own start late, and now even qualify to buy a house is gone; government regulation is always talking about fiction housing prices, the implication may rise slowly, slowly the face of rising prices the most sensible thing to do is sooner buy the cheaper, which allows us to see each time after the regulation of prices rising faster。 So I said after market light of every regulation is the best time to buy a house; 2, if a comprehensive collection of real estate taxes, when the market can bear the cost of the seller will be transferred to the buyer, which would push up prices, if more than the market affordability, market crash, the consequences could be disastrous。
So, invest in real estate must pay close attention to policy changes。
If such a trial and error mistakes, the real estate market in 2015 as the stock market volatility that may arise, but to believe the government's control, the consequences of mistakes the stock market is now the stock market up more than 2014 points or 50% higher。 Of course, considering real estate with leverage this may be fatal for some people to buy the inappropriate。
3, long term real estate must be configured, only the living, meaning when the election is not large, but if it is invested, then on and investment in the stock market has a lot in common, detailed in the section "When real estate speculators off into the stock market," a text, buy ring in the center of the house is fried motherboard; buy school district room just as speculation GEM, buy outer ring, the suburban ring, and three or four lines of the house is like fried B shares, Hong Kong stocks, three new board, follow the Hengqiang , pain points will become dessert theories。 As for how the election, and the stock is almost the same, now also belong to the real estate bull market, but according to my view of logic, the next stretch will still be a few years time to see Manniu (average room rate), but with leveraged real estate investment Manniu sawtooth also very lethal。