After the collapse of the ruble has rebounded 34% of Russia's 2015 default probability is very low

Remittance Network December 26 hearing – since the ruble against the dollar hit a record low of 80 rubles in the vicinity of the ruble has rebounded 34%, that is recouped most of the decline in December, the Russian central bank [microblogging] intervention is Ruble the main reason big rebound。  Russia on December 19 the week spent $ 15.7 billion in international asset reserves to resist devaluation of the ruble, which is nearly six years (since January 2009) the use of reserves once the largest size of funds, which led to Russia's international reserve assets the size of funds fell below $ 400 billion for more than five years (since August 2009) for the first time。  Figure 1 below shows that in the past two weeks, the ruble rose against the dollar pared gains (ie, after the ruble plunged against the dollar regain decline)。   Ruble crash triggered mainly by two factors, one is the crude oil market prices plummeted bring dragged down crude oil sales account Russia's budget revenue is a very important part。Second, an important reason for Western countries due to the crisis in Ukraine and Russia initiated sanctions is Russia's economic decline。  Figure 2 below shows, after the intervention of the largest scale in nearly six years, the total reserves of more than five years fell to a low scale Russia。   Russia's reserves fell to $ 398.9 billion。Russia's central bank said the decline in foreign exchange reserves was mainly due to the repurchase and repurchase think reserve funds for foreign exchange will also back, and said that the reasons for its declining reserves also include the depreciation of the euro against the dollar。  Putin Russia's economic self-exposing internal defects, however, according to news reports satellites, Russia's reserves decline is not the only external factors, Putin will spearhead the country……Putin at a government meeting on Thursday (December 18), held in Moscow, said Russia's economic difficulties facing not only from external factors such as sanctions, but also a correction because the government has not yet built up year after year, the structure of the economy these defects。  Putin also said the Russian government has been trying to change this economic structure, in order to bring more innovative nature of the economy。Although we have done a lot in this area, but recent events show is still not enough。  Russia is about to default?The probability is very low with the recent sharp depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and the euro, the prospects of the Russian economy shrank even worse。  At a press conference held on December 18, the Russian president said the country's economic situation may start to improve in the first quarter of 2015, and within the next few years, the Russian economy will gradually move toward full recovery。  There is concern about the Russian market will face default。However, Russia still has about $ 400 billion in reserve funds。At the same time, according to credit default swaps (CDS) market implies, is based on Russia's economic recovery is 25% probability assumptions, the probability of the Russian debt default in 2015, only 5%。