To raise interest rates by 25 basis points during the year the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates for the first time, "Hawk and Dove flying"

Beijing time Thursday morning, the US Federal Reserve Board announced that the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to% to% level。 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement shows that the rate hike decision was adopted unanimously。
This is the first interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year for the first time, Powell also chairman of the Fed since the decision。 Fed rate hike and the market had expected, and did not bring much of a surprise to the people。
In contrast, the focus of public opinion more focused on the FOMC meeting for the future of the economic data and the future path of interest rates and rhythms forecast。 In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will preside over the first press conference since he took office after the meeting, his speech also came under scrutiny。 The Fed is expected to show the economy "Eagle Pose" FOMC monetary policy meeting statement said that since January, the US labor market continues to perform strongly, moderate growth in economic activity。 Employment growth in recent months, remain strong, the unemployment rate remains low, the latest data show that household spending and business fixed investment growth is relatively strong in the fourth quarter milder。
The Committee expects that with the further adjustment of monetary policy, economic activity will moderate expansion in the medium term; while the labor market has been strengthened。
Measure the next 12 months inflation index is expected to rise in the coming months, stable around the target in the medium term the Commission 2%。
Near-term risks facing the economic outlook performance was roughly balanced, the economic outlook in recent months have been strengthened。
The Fed also raised its forecast more significantly for future growth。 The Fed's latest economic forecast released by the 2018 to 2020 growth forecasts were raised to%,% and%; 2018 to 2020, the unemployment rate is expected to cut to% respectively,% and%; core PCE inflation rate this year It expected to remain unchanged, expected next year, and in 2020 was%, higher than the expected value% in December。
At the same time, the Federal Reserve released the same day of the quarter, the median interest rate forecast "bitmap" showed that Fed officials still expected to raise interest rates three times this year, in line with last December's forecast。
But in 2019 and 2020 respectively, will raise interest rates three times and twice the rate hike path is steeper than last December's forecast。 Fed officials expect the federal funds rate by the end of 2019%, the expected value of the last%。
Powell FOMC debut bright "sound dove" Powell held his first news conference since assuming the presidency of the Federal Reserve in the day。 And the overall bias "Eagle" different economic expectations the Federal Reserve, Powell issued a more "dove" faction at a news conference remarks。 Powell said that the current economic situation is more healthy than in the past 10 years, less likely recession。 US fiscal policy has become more active, robust employment growth will boost income growth and consumer confidence, economic growth and more robust overseas, the overall financial market conditions remain relatively loose, these factors will support the economic outlook improving。 With the changing economic conditions, the Fed will change the expected policy easing gradually underweight。
Table shrink project is running smoothly, the Fed does not intend to change the content reduction sheet items。
For the market generally concerned about inflation, Powell said the Fed remained committed to achieving the inflation target of 2%, but the data indicate that inflation will accelerate inflation below 2% last year, reflecting the drop in prices is not unusual。
The Fed wants to avoid the situation remains below the target level of inflation, it has not been "excessive deviation of inflation expectations" to reach a specific assessment values。
In addition, Powell said the Fed is carefully considering increasing the number of press conferences, but not more frequent number of conference policy signals。 The Fed will stick to gradually raise interest rates, interest rates will slow the risk of economic structure, and gradually raise interest rates next step to better achieve the Fed's objective to continue to support economic development。
Reuters commented that the problem Powell FOMC first show brought more questions than answers, the economy is expected to raise interest rates and partial "Eagle", while its wording but partial "dove"。 Within the Fed as well as what level of unemployment can be reduced to how tax reform will push up inflation, there is still disagreement, but Powell is confident that he will take time to resolve internal anxiety。 Some analysts believe that the Fed's optimistic about the US economic situation indicates that the pace of future rate hikes may be accelerated。
Although the number of full-year 2018, the interest rate the Fed released the same day is still three times, but the "Wall Street Journal" reported that, at the regular meeting of monetary policy to support sound four times this year to raise interest rates increase a lot more than in December last year,。 "New York Times" pointed out that up to a trillion dollars of federal tax cuts and increased fiscal spending will stimulate economic growth in the short term, there could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates four times this year。 But the industry still tend to moderate the Fed will stick to gradual rate hikes, economic consulting firm DecisionEconomics senior adviser to Kerry Lacey said that despite the economic fundamentals are quite solid, the Fed will raise interest rates during the year is still three times instead of four secondary。
Because financial markets may appear disturbing situation, it is enough to make the Fed reluctant to intervene。
In addition, the inflation rate lower than expected increases may also prompt the Fed to raise interest rates only three times。